Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 22 - 26 June

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Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 22 - 26 June

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Global Macro Watch

Known Unknowns 22 - 26 June

US: Worsening inflation and upside revisions to 1Q GDP 21 June 2026

Headline PCE inflation is likely to reach 0.5% mom in May, leaving the yoy rate at 4.1%. Economics Rates & FX

In turn, core PCE inflation is likely to rise 0.4% over the month, with the yearly rate Global

accelerating to 3.5%, underscoring the Fed’s worsening inflation problem. We expect

personal spending to accelerate mildly to 0.6% in May, vs. 0.5% in April. In turn, personal Table of Contents

income is likely to increase by 0.4%, a more marked improvement from 0.0% in April. For

Known Unknowns 2

the third release of 1Q GDP, we expect a 60bp upward revision to reach 2.2%.

Known Unknowns (EM) 4

Japan: BoJ Summary of Opinions Sunday 5

We expect the Board to underscore how concerns about upside inflation risks drove the Monday 5

decision to raise rates. Deputy Governor Uchida sounded neutral in his post-MPM press Tuesday 5

conference. He reaffirmed the bias toward further rate hikes but avoided any commitment Wednesday 6

on pace or distance to the terminal rate. Markets will likely be looking for hints on board Thursday 7

members’ thinking on the distance to neutral and checkpoints for the next hike. Friday 8

Research Analysts 13

Canada: BoC Summary of Deliberations, CPI

We expect the Council to emphasize elevated uncertainty, economic slack, and the

implications for forward guidance. We expect further discussion of heightened Antonio Gabriel Global Economist

geopolitical risks and higher energy prices stemming from the war in Iran. We expect CPI BofAS

to rise 0.7% mom and 3.0% yoy, from 0.4% mom and 2.8% yoy in April. We expect +1antonio.gabriel@bofa.com646 743 5373