Market Intelligence: US Morning Update

Research evidence excerpt

Market Intelligence: US Morning Update

Equity Research

22 June 2026 | 8:25AM EDT

Click “here” to listen to the US Morning Call. Chris Hussey

+1(212)902-7564 |

chris.hussey@gs.com

Stocks in Asia were mixed Monday, albeit with a positive bias, as investors reacted to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

a very strong Korea export report (+8.7% mom in the first 20 days of June — see Sarah Herr

+1(212)357-0094 | sarah.herr@gs.com

“South Korea: Acceleration in Early June Exports, Boosting the Trade Surplus to a Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Record high”). Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.7% overnight and has now tripled over the Kshitij Garg

past year (see also Goohoon Kwon’s economics update, “Korea Views: Korea—Riding +1(212)934-7434Goldman Sachs India| kshitij.garg@gs.comSPL

Stronger and Longer AI Tailwinds”).

In Europe this morning, equities are little changed. UK PM Starmer announced his

resignation this morning paving the way for a transition in September. Prior to this

announcement, Jari Stehn provided our outlook for the UK economy in a note on

Friday, “UK Views: Looking Through.”

Across asset classes, oil is down a touch as markets continue to read the tea leaves of

ongoing US-Iran negotiations. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are nudging higher,

however, as the lingering impact of 3+ months of oil shortages may be longer lasting

on inflation than some appreciate.

No recession in sight. Jan Hatzius lowers our recession probability forecast back

down to 15% from 25% previously as the agreement between the US and Iran has

reduced the downside risks to our economic outlook — as he discusses in a fresh

note this morning, “Global Views: More Crude, Less Concern.” We now forecast a

lower probability of a recession than we did before the war started because the

labor market has improved since then.