618 pulse check: Expert call takeaways: sound growth, more subsidies/promotion supports and stable channel spending; leading local/MNCs ahead

Research evidence excerpt

618 pulse check: Expert call takeaways: sound growth, more subsidies/promotion supports and stable channel spending; leading local/MNCs ahead

Goldman Sachs China Cosmetics

Tmall/Taobao GMV. At the same time, greater participation in instant retail

supported user activity, with promotional-period DAU still rising about 5%; 2)

Subsidies: Cosmetics also benefited meaningfully from their first inclusion in the

national subsidy program at 12%-20% discount, which covered c.20% GMV, while

deferred demand from the March 8 shopping festival further boosted 618

performance.

n Local vs MNC brands: MNC brands generated c.RMB 34 billion GMV, up c.10% YoY,

while domestic brands reached c.RMB 13 billion, up 30%+ yoy, lifting share to c.27%

from below 24% last year. Expert shared domestic brands outperformed in the later

stage mainly due to subsidy support, as well as stronger traffic and resource

allocation from the platform and leading livestreaming channels. Within

international brands, premium and higher-ticket names remained resilient, while

mid-priced brands faced greater pressure from the recovery of domestic players.

n Mass vs Premium: Tmall/Taobao beauty showed stronger growth at both the

premium and mass with weaker momentum in the mid-price segment. Sales in the

luxury (RMB 1,000+ order value) / premium (Rmb 800-1,000 order value) grew

24%/17%-18% YoY, while mid-to-high end (RMB 300-800 order value) grew at

c.12% yoy despite holding the largest share at 35%. The mass (RMB 100-300 order

value) segment also posted solid 16%-17% yoy growth, suggesting co-existence of

premiumization and value demand.

n Top tier KOL: Tmall/Taobao’s KOL ecosystem remains highly concentrated to

top-tier KOLs, with Li Jiaqi’s livestream as key 618 sales driver, generating RMB 10