LATAM Today: June 22, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: June 22, 2026

Economics Research

22 June 2026 | 8:25AM EDT

RamosARGENTINA Alberto | +1(212)357-5768

alberto.ramos@gs.com

Data This Week: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

ArmellaToday: Unemployment Rate (1Q26); we forecast an uptick in the unemployment Sergio | +1(212)357-9077

rate to 7.8% in the first quarter, 0.3pp above the 7.5% reading in the fourth quarter sergio.armella@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

of 2025. Santiago Tellez

+1(212)855-0367 |

Tuesday: Real GDP (1Q26); consistent with the EMAE monthly real GDP proxy, we santiago.tellez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

forecast real economic activity to have expanded by 0.3% qoq sa (1.7% yoy) in the

first quarter of 2026. Activity in the primary sector continues to drive the recovery

while the secondary sector and the more labor-intensive tertiary sector are lagging.

Wednesday: Current Account Balance (1Q26); we forecast a small current account

surplus of US$0.5bn in the first quarter, supported by an improving trade balance.

Energy and agricultural exports have remained strong, while imports have come in

below expectations in recent months.

SA

BRAZIL

Copom Minutes: Inflation Convergence to Target Beyond the Current Relevant

Horizon

The central bank will publish on Tuesday, June 23, the minutes from the June 17

Copom meeting, when the Selic rate was cut by another 25bp to 14.25%. We expect

the minutes to reinforce the cautious approach to near-term policy calibration

shown in the post-meeting statement and to stress that from the current 14.25%

Selic level there are Selic rate paths that deliver inflation to the target by 1Q28

(which will be at the tail-end of the relevant horizon for monetary policy at the Q3

Aug and Sept Copom meetings).

In the minutes we will be looking for:

1.