China Coal: Sentiment cooling down

Research evidence excerpt

China Coal: Sentiment cooling down

22 June 2026

Equities

Metals & Mining China Coal

Sentiment cooling down China

◆ Seaborne coal price to come under pressure from weaker Daniel Yang*

sentiment on oil/gas prices as US/Iran sign memorandum Analyst, Asia Energy Transition

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

daniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Shanxi coal mine incident poses limited impact to production; +852 299 66976

inventory continues to pile up to levels seen in 2025 Evan Li*

Head, Asia Energy Transition Research

◆ China coal price set to cool in 2H26; maintain Shenhua H/A evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

at Hold/Hold and TPs at HKD43.00/RMB49.00 +852 2996 6619

Vivian Zhou*

Associate

Cooling of seaborne coal follows regional oil/gas prices: The ceasefire deal Guangzhou

between the US and Iran triggered a sharp sell-off in energy markets, with oil and gas

prices falling by 13% and 18%, respectively. Seaborne coal prices moved in tandem, * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

declining by around 5%. We anticipate that weaker sentiment across alternative not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

energy markets as US and Iran closed the memorandum agreement will continue to

weigh on seaborne thermal coal, and potentially lead to the seaborne coal price

trading below domestic China coal prices in 2H26.

Shanxi coal mine accident, limited impact on domestic supply: The mine

accident in Qinyuan, Shanxi put 134.5mt of capacity under suspension the day after

the incident, but nearly 50% of operations had resumed one week later. At present,

only c60.7mt, or c1% of domestic capacity, remains completely shut. On a nationwide

scale, coal output remained robust in 5M26, with the daily run rate surpassing the

13mt/pd threshold.