Positioning signals: Positioning signals more defensive in G10 than EM

Research evidence excerpt

Positioning signals: Positioning signals more defensive in G10 than EM

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Foreign Exchange Date

Emerging Europe 22 June 2026

Global DB EPIC+

Latin America

Positioning signals: Positioning signals

more defensive in G10 than EM

Bryant Xu

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the decline in oil prices have helped ease

Strategist

market concerns, shaping recent FX positioning. Positioning signals remain +65-6423 5558

defensive in G10, reflecting continued support for the USD from Fed hawkishness,

US growth outperformance, and safe-haven demand. In contrast, Asian markets Rohini Grover, Ph.D.

have broadly reduced USD longs amid policy support and improving domestic

+44-20-75475907

fundamentals. Elsewhere, positioning shifts across CEEMEA and LatAm remain

relatively modest and mixed.

Within G10, short positioning signals have extended most notably in EUR and GBP.

The short positioning signal in JPY has eased slightly but remains elevated, while

the signal in CHF is unchanged. Among the commodity currencies, the short

positioning signal has strengthened in AUD and CAD, whereas NZD signals remain

broadly stable. In the Scandis, short positioning signals have also extended,

increasing moderately in SEK and more modestly in NOK.

In Asia, positioning signals indicate a broad reduction in long USD bias, albeit with

varying intensity. IDR shorts were significantly reduced, while positioning signal for

INR shifted from short to marginal long, driven by proactive central bank measures

and improved terms of trade. Elsewhere, KRW positioning signal flipped from short

to long underpinned by export strength and improving bond inflows, even as equity

outflows persist, with our analysis pointing to KOSPI-driven fund rebalancing as a

key driver.