Global Chemicals Weekly: Industry Update

Research evidence excerpt

Global Chemicals Weekly: Industry Update

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

Global 22 June 2026

Global Chemicals

Chemicals Industry Update

Bulk Weekly

News, views and valuation

Virginie Boucher-Ferte

BASF (BASFn.DE, BUY) Research Analyst

We forecast Q2 EBITDA to be up 31% YoY to €2.088bn (2% above consensus) driven +33-1-4495-5934

by strong growth in the upstream businesses on improved pricing/margins

Tristan Lamotte

alongside higher volumes. We expect mgmt to reiterate the FY 26 EBITDA guidance Research Analyst

of €6.2-7.0bn. Yet we remain slightly above despite modest EPS cuts (1-4%) to +44-20-7547-1862

reflect the faster than expected normalisation of margins as supply disruptions

David Begleiter

ease. We are 8% above the mid-point and 2% above the high end of the range, but

Research Analyst

2% below consensus. As for other commodity businesses, the key debate remains

+1-212-250-5473

on the speed and magnitude of the price & volume normalisation.

Rajiv Dalal

Our forecasts imply H2 EBITDA (ex Ag & Other) up 10% YoY, after flat in Q1 and up Research Associate

40% in Q2E, which seems reasonable given easier H2 comps and likely lower start-

up costs in China. We also remain more confident on BASF than on other European Saurabh Mehndiratta

cyclical peers, due to the company's better cost-positioning/integrated set-up Research Associate

(including China) and cost cutting focus, with the recently announced CoreShift

program. The stock trades at 7.8x 26E EV/EBITDA, below its 10-year average. We

leave our TP unchanged at €60 as modest short-term EPS cuts are offset by the Top Picks

rolling forward of our DCF. Buy Air Liquide (AIRP.PA),EUR164.16 Buy

Q2 26 results due July 29 Givaudan (GIVN.S),CHF3,252.00 Buy

Novonesis (NSISb.CO),DKK394.20 Buy