June 22: Hawkish Expectations Remain in Focus: Global Macro Commentary | North America

Research evidence excerpt

June 22: Hawkish Expectations Remain in Focus: Global Macro Commentary | North America

UpdateMsimulations. Brazilian rates also rallied, with the DI curve bull flattening and

Jan 27s vs Jan 31s moving ~17bp lower, after the Treasury canceled

tomorrow’s NTN‑B bond auction and the BCB injected liquidity into the spot

market.

Central Bank Monitor

Developed Markets

• In the US, Governor Christopher Waller addressed the evolving role

of the dollar, noting that traditional drivers — U.S. economic size and

financial market depth — keep the dollar's global role intact. He

acknowledged that rapid technological innovation is changing how

households and businesses interact with dollars, including through

new asset types and payment mechanisms.

• In the Euro Area, ECB President Lagarde spoke before European

lawmakers in Brussels, stating that the ECB sees no evidence that a

more forceful policy response is needed at this stage, as inflation is

expected to return to the 2% target over the medium term, with the

public not anticipating high inflation to persist. She noted the

economy sits between the ECB's baseline and a milder scenario, that

the Iran shock is too large to look through, and that the ECB must

remain agile — while also flagging some de-anchoring of short-term

inflation expectations. Separately, ECB Governing Council member

Escrivá said the ECB must remain vigilant for second-round effects on

wages stemming from higher oil and commodity prices, noting that

the most relevant pass-through observed at the June meeting was in

transport-related services where energy is a key input.

• In the UK, BoE published a draft Code of Practice for systemic

sterling stablecoin issuers, dropping previously proposed individual

holding caps and replacing them with a temporary £40 billion