4 points from the CMD: Exxaro Resources Limited | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

4 points from the CMD: Exxaro Resources Limited | Europe

Update

June 22, 2026 07:57 PM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MExxaro Resources Limited | Europe Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

4 points from the CMD Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.comChristopher Nicholson +27 11 587-0803

Equity Strategist and Analyst

Christopher.Nicholson@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0816

Exxaro presented a CMD that confirmed much of what we

already know. Despite management having a positive view on Exxaro Resources Limited (EXXJ.J, EXX SJ)

coal markets, the company is unwilling to deploy capital other EEMEA - Metals & Mining | South Africa

Stock Rating Overweight

than lifex on existing operations, and rather allocates growth Industry View In-Line

Price target ZAc 26,000

capital to renewable energy. Shr price, close (Jun 22, 2026) ZAc 20,882

52-Week Range ZAc 23,053- 14,400

Exxaro presented a bullish case for coal, but appears reluctant to allocate capital Mkt cap, curr (mn) ZAR 71,938

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* ZAR 1,795

to it. The company commissioned an independent report into global coal markets, EV, curr (mn)* ZAR 77,138

and the finding was that supply is expected to fall off faster than demand (as is * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

often the case with long-term commodity S/D forecasting). Globally, they see 3bn Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

tonnes of new capacity required by 2050, compared to 7bn tonnes today as existing Sales / Revenue (ZAR 41,771 50,280 52,276 56,174

mines deplete. The story is similar with South African domestic coal supplies, with mn)**

EBITDA (ZAR mn)** 14,713 19,774 19,732 21,802

131Mt new capacity needed by 2050 compared to 235Mt today. With extensive EBIT (ZAR mn)** 11,846 16,455 15,883 17,739