Brenntag (BNRGn.DE): Ad hoc Q2 update

Research evidence excerpt

Brenntag (BNRGn.DE): Ad hoc Q2 update

Brenntag (BNRGn.DE)

22 June 2026 Citi Research

Brenntag

Valuation

We arrive at our target price of EUR53 using a sum-of-the-parts analysis, benchmarking Brenntag Specialties against listed

peers like IMCD. We cross-check our SOP valuation inputs, with DCF and EVA analyses and use DataStream to source

consensus earnings forecasts for IMCD, which is not covered by Citi. We use a WACC of 8% and perpetuity growth rate of 3%.

Risks

Key risks that may affect Brenntag and its ability to reach our target price include:

• Economic sensitivity: Citi economists forecast solid US industrial production growth and solid / stable Eurozone IP growth,

which correlate well with BRN’s top-line momentum and underpin our forecast organic growth. Any sudden, unexpected

economic weakness or decline in industrial production in any of its markets could negatively impact BRN’s financial

performance.

• Oil and gas risk: Any unexpected oil price weakness could derail the tentative US rig count recovery and impact BRN’s O&G

business. Our forecasts assume that BRN’s O&G business troughed during 2016.

• FX exposure: With North America accounting for 43% of group EBITDA, BRN has significant USD exposure. In our model, we

assume FX rates similar to current spot rates going forward.

• Environmental remediation costs: BRN has substantial environmental liabilities due to the nature of its business. BRN

maintains insurance that offers protection, but retains residual risk, covered by provisions. It is possible, however, that

unexpected environmental claims could hurt BRN’s financial performance. Our forecasts assume gradual (EUR10m pa)

utilisation of environmental provisioning.