Plot Twist, But No Change In View

Research evidence excerpt

Plot Twist, But No Change In View

to steepen.

We like paying India rates on dips as inflation should rise over the coming months on base effects and

elevated oil prices, with risks tilted to the upside given forecasts of a weaker monsoon season. Our

Pay 5-year INR NDOIS (limit order) 15-Jun-26 6.30 6.90 6.00 economists see inflation moving into the upper end of the RBI's target range, which may bolster market Lower-than-expected inflation in India.

expectations of rate hikes. There are also risks of the fiscal deficit being wider than the government's FY27

target.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 18: Credit trades

Stance/Trade Date Entry Level Target Stop Rationale Risks

Buy MEX Feb’35 vs BRAZIL Mar’34 15-May-26 6 -25 20 MexicoDowngradehas significantlyconcernslaggedwill peerslikely persistand nowyetlooksour basevery casecheap,seesincludingno actualby pricingdowngradestwo fullindowngrades.2026. USMCA negotiationsuggestingenteringa shift ourtowardsbear casefiscal orconsolidationBrazilian polls strongly

Switch out of VENZ 38 into PDVSA 26 15-May-26 9.0 6.0 10.5 A price of of 9 points, or price totheclaimVENZof 4.6treatedpoints,theissamenot warrantedin a restructuring.given our base case sees PDVSA and Any negativetreatedannouncementsworse thansuggestingthe sovereignPDVSAbondsbonds will be

Buy ARGENT USD GDP Warrant 15-May-26 4.0 8.0 3.5 Our fair value stands at 8 assuming a conservativeto the 2013assumptionreference ofyeara 33% probability that there is a payout due The newly filed 2026 case covering the 2013 payment is dismissed

Exhibit 19: Credit stances

Turkey’s macro backdrop is likely to face manageable pressure in 2026 as higher energy prices weigh on

Like Turkey Hard Currency Bonds 15-May-26 NA NA NA growth, fiscal dynamics and external balances.