McDonald‘s (MCD): Turning the corner?

Research evidence excerpt

McDonald‘s (MCD): Turning the corner?

22 June 2026

Danilo Gargiulo

+1 917 344 8475

U.S. Restaurants danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com

McDonald's Corp

Rating

Market-Perform

Price Target

MCD 310.00 USD

McDonald's (MCD): Turning the corner?

Following McDonald’s worldwide franchisee convention, we spoke with McDonald’s investor

Close Date 18 Jun 2026

relations and below are our key takes.

MCD Close Price (USD) 278.61

McDonald's is advancing a more ambitious innovation agenda than we had previously Price Target (USD) 310.00

appreciated, with a particular emphasis on beverages and chicken. On chicken Upside/(Downside) 11%

specifically, management’s comments were encouraging as the company is testing hand- 52-Week Range 341.75/271.85

breaded chicken in the US following the success internationally, where taste scores in SPX 7,500.58

Malaysia reportedly exceed those of the category leader, and the gap is closing in China. The FYE Dec

key risk we see is franchisees’ capacity to absorb the capital and labor complexity, though Div Yield 2.7%

this could potentially be offset by reallocating labor freed by AI-driven drive-thru automation. Market Cap (USD) (M) 197,954

Reflecting on the industry overall, we do wonder if, with this intensified menu innovation, EV (USD) (M) 251,665

restaurants are simply running faster to remain in the same place. Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (8.8) (0.8) (11.8) (3.8)

A store refresh cycle appears imminent, as the system needs to evolve to successfully SPX (%) 9.6 0.4 9.0 25.7

implement menu changes and respond to how consumers interact with the brand. Relative (%) (18.4) (1.1) (20.8) (29.5)

New designs may feature a standalone station for hand-battered chicken, only one drive Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.