More hawk than stool pigeon: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

More hawk than stool pigeon: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

18 June 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

More hawk than stool pigeon

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

+1 212 526 3497

US CPI: The FOMC held rates and provided a trimmed statement that removed any forward

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

guidance and easing bias. In the revised dot plot, nine of 18 participants favored rate hikes this BCI, US

year. Further, the June SEP showed significant upward revisions to inflation projections; 2026

Apostolos Apostolouheadline PCE inflation median projection was raised to 3.6% Q4/Q4, while core PCE inflation

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was raised to 3.3% Q4/Q4. Our economists summarize the meeting in their First Look. Our

apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

economists are changing their Fed call: in light of the FOMC's hawkish turn focused on restoring BCI, US

price stability and the participants' upward revisions in the dots for 2027, they now expect the

FOMC to maintain rates unchanged until the end of 2027. Real yields sold off on Wednesday: 2y

+14.6bp, 5y +10.1bp, 10y +5.3bp, and 30y +1.0bp (carry-adjusted). On a carry-/RBOB-adjusted

basis, breakevens sold off: 1y -2.3bp, 2y -4.4bp, 5y -2.6bp, 10y -1.9bp, and 30y -1.4bp. 1y1y sold

off 6bp and 2y3y sold off 1.6bp. The 5y TIPS reopening is today; we share our thoughts in our

auction preview. We close our long 5y TIPS trade; despite bullish July seasonals, the risk/reward

from a higher real rate path after today's hawkish meeting is not favorable. We also move the

stop on our short 1y1y BE position to 2.50% from 2.63%; it currently sits at 2.48%, and our target

is 2.40%.