Fanuc (6954.T): Looking ahead to Q1 numbers, although it is hard to quantify the impact of physical AI

Research evidence excerpt

Fanuc (6954.T): Looking ahead to Q1 numbers, although it is hard to quantify the impact of physical AI

Fanuc (6954.T)

22 June 2026 Citi Research

Fanuc

Valuation

We set our ¥7,600 target price for Fanuc with reference to the average forward multiple of global FA names of c30x one year

out. As one of the world’s top industrial franchises, we adopt a target FY3/28E cash-adjusted multiple of 30x as this captures

the prospects of further uspide to machine tool demand (with an estimated global share of >40% in CNCs/servo motors) and

the long-term expected growth in industrial robots (Fanuc has the top share of 20%-25%, with a leading position in key markets

such as North America and China). We acknowledge ongoing concerns regarding the negative impact of a rising penetration of

EVs on machine tool demand, the negative mix effect of higher robot demand, the ever-present threat of long-term competition

in China from local and Taiwanese suppliers, and limited visibility on any sustained upturn in demand for robo-drills, but the

shift by the company away from closed, proprietary systems indicates an awareness that change is necessary. Fanuc has a

cash-rich balance sheet and a more proactive stance towards shareholder returns than many other FA names. At our target

price of ¥7,600 the shares would stand on an FY3/27E EV/EBITDA of 22x (above the seven-year average of 19x) and a PBR of

3.5x (also above the average of <3x), but we feel there is more upside for sales, margins, FCF, and shareholder returns.

Risks

Factors that could cause the shares to undershoot our target price include 1) a renewed downturn in global manufacturing

activity/manufacturing PMIs, especially in China, partly driven by trade friction; 2) a contraction in machine tool demand and