Policy uncertainty, Bond markets & UK equities — Part 3, The turnaround?

Research evidence excerpt

Policy uncertainty, Bond markets & UK equities — Part 3, The turnaround?

Portfolio Strategy Research

19 June 2026 | 1:15PM BST

UK WEEKLY KICKSTART

n Gilts less sensitive to UK politics: We reported before inflation increased – rising to 3.7% – this was largely Sharon Bell

+44(20)7552-1341 |

on the link between UK Gilt yields – especially the offset by strong downward moves in core goods and sharon.bell@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

spreads to Bunds – and political risks (Exhibit 1). The food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation. Our economists

Peter Oppenheimer

chance of Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaving office – now expect headline inflation to average 3.3% in +44(20)7552-5782 | peter.oppenheimer@gs.com

measured by prediction markets – has risen slightly in 2026Q4, a 0.4pp downgrade relative to their forecast Goldman Sachs International

recent weeks but the bond spread has narrowed. We see prior to the latest data and energy market Guillaume Jaisson +44(20)7552-3000 |

this as a function of external events, particularly the developments. guillaume.jaisson@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

interim US-Iran deal and the falls in Energy prices putting Giovanni Ferrannini n Unemployment rate falls: Labour market data showed +44(20)7051-2589 | downward pressure on global yields, and more so for an giovanni.ferrannini@gs.com

the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 4.9% Goldman Sachs International energy-sensitive economy and a vulnerable sovereign

(from 5.0%) in April, while the flash payrolls print for Elena Porfidia such as the UK. But, it is also a function of comments +44(20)7051-5240 |

May came in above expectations. Private sector regular elena.porfidia@gs.com from Andy Burnham, Starmer’s likely challenger, that he Goldman Sachs International