EssilorLuxottica SA: Estimates and valuation reset

Research evidence excerpt

EssilorLuxottica SA: Estimates and valuation reset

Accessible version

EssilorLuxottica SA

Estimates and valuation reset

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 237.00 EUR | Price: 177.60 EUR

Revenues: the crux of the issue 18 June 2026

We are cutting sales estimates in the low single digits for 2026E but in the double digits

thereafter, all stemming from lower wearable sales. Key reasons: we previously expected Equity

the launch of all key competitors’products in FY27, leading to a material boost to

penetration. Yet, as per Bloomberg reports, the launch of key competitor Apple will take Key Changes

place at yearend 2027 (one year later than expected). We still expect the launch of the

(EUR) Previous Current

Google/Samsung, Google/Samsung/Warby Parker and Google/Samsung/Gentle Monster

Price Obj. 330.00 237.00

alliances in 2H26 but there is a second issue: on what scale and how differentiating? For

2026E EPS 7.32 7.07

now, Google has previewed 2 SKUs (we expect c.100 at yearend for EssilorLuxottica -

2027E EPS 8.65 7.71

EL) and uses are similar to those on EL products. Thus, pending more visibility, we cut

2028E EPS 10.11 8.72

our wearables market penetration from 23% to 17% in 2035 (2035E EL sales from

€74bn to €65bn). 2026E DPS 4.08 3.94

EBIT margin: last year’s topic Thierry Cota >>

Research Analyst

While last year’s 1ppt YoY EBIT drop was initially not well modelled by consensus; the BofASE (France)

new group guidance of broadly flat EBIT margin at cc this year (BofAE at -30bp, mostly +33 1 5365-5819

thierry.cota@bofa.com

due to FX) and until 2030 inclusive, brings visibility and was already factored in BofAE.

Ashley Wallace >>

We believe the implied assumption is that the GM dilution from the wearables’ ramp up Research Analyst