Dealing With Inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Dealing With Inflation

Economics Research

19 June 2026 | 1:18PM BST

GLOBAL RATES TRADER

Inflation risks have subsided somewhat given the energy relief following the US-Iran George Cole

+44(20)7552-1214 |

deal, but in their place the market has repriced US front-end rates following the george.cole@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

hawkish FOMC messaging. As markets adapt to a shift in Fed communication, we

William Marshallexpect greater policy uncertainty to support vol and see scope for greater reactivity +1(212)357-0413 |

to individual datapoints and Fed communication. Our forecasts and longer-term william.c.marshall@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

valuations argue for a steepening bias in the US, but with hawkish risks boosting Simon Freycenet

front-end yields and compressing long-end risk premium, we think positioning for +44(20)7774-5017simon.freycenet@gs.com|

belly outperformance on the curve offers the best near-term risk/reward for longs. GoldmanBranch Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

Energy relief narrows the outcomes for European rates, favouring lower vol and EGB Isabella Rosenberg

carry, but we think the prospects for much lower yields are limited. In contrast, we +1(212)357-7628 | isabella.rosenberg@gs.com

expect more macro relief for front-end UK rates as the BoE remains on hold and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

energy inflation subsides. We favour 2s10s GBP steepeners as fiscal risk premium Friedrich Schaper

+1(917)343-3214 |

remains elevated following the Makerfield by-election. With the BoJ having delivered friedrich.schaper@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

a hike without more hawkish guidance on the path or end-point of the tightening

Loic Mathys

cycle, fiscal policy is likely a near-term focal point. We expect the long-end to be +44(20)7051-1664 |