Asia-Pacific Inflation Monitor: Oil Past the Peak

Research evidence excerpt

Asia-Pacific Inflation Monitor: Oil Past the Peak

Economics Research

21 June 2026 | 2:43PM HKT

n This publication summarizes regional and economy-specific inflation data across Andrew Tilton

+852-2978-1802 |

the Asia-Pacific economies we cover. The latest CPI/PPI data points are generally andrew.tilton@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

for May 2026, with some energy price data through mid-June.

Andrew Boak, CFA

+61(2)9321-8576 |

n Our commodity strategists have lowered their energy price forecasts somewhat andrew.boak@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

(to $80/bbl for Brent in Q4, from $90/bbl previously) reflecting increased

Akira Otani

prospects for a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and much lower global oil +81(3)4587-9960 | akira.otani@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

prices in recent weeks. Import prices and producer prices rose sharply across

Goohoon Kwon, CFA

Asia since early 2026 (though implicit or explicit subsidies have moderated or +852-2978-0048 |

goohoon.kwon@gs.com

capped retail fuel prices in some countries), but are set to ease materially in the Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

next monthly update. Hui Shan

+852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com

n Pre-war, CPI inflation was broadly in line with or below central bank targets in

Santanu Sengupta most countries. Now, headline and core CPI inflation are generally in line with +91(22)6616-9042 |

targets or above. santanu.sengupta@gs.comGoldman Sachs India SPL

n Inflation pressures have been particularly acute in lower-income economies with Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 |

more limited subsidies—the pace of seasonally-adjusted CPI inflation over the xinquan.chen@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

past three months in Philippines and Thailand remains over 10% annualized. But Irene Choi