Global Emerging Markets Weekly: Oil relief meets hawkish Fed

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Global Emerging Markets Weekly: Oil relief meets hawkish Fed

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Global Emerging Markets Weekly

Oil relief meets hawkish Fed

The View: Oil relief meets hawkish Fed 19 June 2026

Oil relief meets a more hawkish Fed, leaving EM caught between easing geopolitics and Emerging Markets Weekly

tightening financial conditions. In EM, we upgraded Pakistan EXD to MW and entered Global

new risk-on trades in SAGBs, and EGP and LKR T-bills. Hawkish FOMC increases risk of

bear flattening regime with stronger dollar that tends to be negative for EM. – L. Martin Table of Contents

Asia Economics: China – May activity growth data The View 2

May activity indicators point to further deterioration in both consumption and Asia Economics 4

investment. Despite still-solid export growth, domestic demand growth remains Asia Strategy 5

lackluster on the back of soft household and business confidence.– Y. He, B. Wu, H.Qiao EEMEA Economics 6

EEMEA Strategy 8Asia Strategy: Korea - KOSPI strength & KRW weakness

Despite continued KOSPI outperformance, KRW remained under pressure. Quantitative LatAm Economics 10

analysis points to a four-step process driving KRW weakness. Potential KRW saviors: LatAm Strategy 11

policy backstop, higher inflows. –J. Xue, R. Adlakha, D. Hauner, C. Piron Sovereign Strategy 13

EEMEA Economics: Iran deal - an uneasy new normal Credit Risk Premium Model 15

The draft US-Iran MoU is fragile, but could likely hold in given lack of interest in return CTA Monitor in EM 16

to war ahead of US elections. Near-term risks include differing deal interpretations, GEMs Macro Tables 19

Hezbollah-Israel dynamics, domestic opposition, complex nuclear talks. – J. Saliba EM Alpha Trade Recommendations 22