The Oil Gusher: Oil Service previews: offshore earnings and multiple upsides

Research evidence excerpt

The Oil Gusher: Oil Service previews: offshore earnings and multiple upsides

Accessible version

The Oil Gusher

Oil Service previews: offshore earnings

and multiple upsides

Industry Overview

Key takeaways 19 June 2026

Equity• Oil down but +ve momentum builds: Middle East risks ease & Equinor upgrades capex.

Pan-Euro

• Saipem top pick: structural offshore upcycle warrants higher multiple. Oils

• 2Q26: small SPM beat, better order intake, downsides at Vallourec (U/P).

Matthew Smith >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 7109Tailwinds build for Oil Services matt.smith1@bofa.com

Despite a fading oil price, we see positive momentum building for European Oil Services.

Christopher Kuplent >>

First, agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz should alleviate logistical constraints Research Analyst

and ease downside risks to 2026 guidance. Second, Equinor used its 2026 CMD to MLI (UK) christopher.kuplent@bofa.com

confidently raise its offshore capex spend ($1bn higher in 2027) and 2030 production Cian Evans-Cowie >>

outlook. We think a sign of things to come. We expect offshore project approvals, by Research Analyst

value, to double in 2027 vs 2025 (see our report, Offshore upcycle ascends: Saipem top MLIcian.evans-cowie@bofa.com(UK)

pick).

Structural growth mispriced: Saipem top pick See inside for 2Q26 earnings previews

Oil Services remains our subsector preference in European Energy and Saipem our top for:

pick. Despite share price outperformance, Saipem still trades a 4.7x EV/EBITDA (Exhibit Saipem (SPM) – Buy – results 27th July

2); a clear discount to peers. We see material earnings growth to 2030 (c.50% EBITDA) GTT – Buy – results 28th July

and a meaningful re-rating opportunity as profitability structurally improves to record Subsea 7 – no rating – results 30th July