End of blockade: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

End of blockade: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

19 June 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

End of blockade

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

+1 212 526 3497

US CPI: The interim peace deal between the US and Iran took effect on Thursday. The 5y TIPS

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

reopening stopped through 1bp today. Real yields flattened: 2y +3.6bp, 5y -0.1bp, 10y -0.7bp, BCI, US

and 30y +-2.0bp (carry-adjusted). On a carry-/RBOB-adjusted basis, breakevens sold off: 1y

Apostolos Apostolou-6.6bp, 2y -4.4bp, 5y -1.2bp, 10y -1.0bp, and 30y -0.8bp. 1y1y sold off 2.7bp and 2y3y rose 0.9bp.

+1 212 526 5051

In our weekly piece, we cover the FOMC, the drop in 1y breakevens and food inflation, and our

apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

iota widener position. BCI, US

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: On Thursday, AFT issued 465mn EUROATei32, EUR465mn OATei38 and

EUR328mn OATei40 (total EUR1018mn), with 3.0x, 2.7x, and 3.0x bid-to-cover ratios,

respectively. Real yields sold off: 2y +7bp, 5y +4bp, 10y +2bp, and 30y +0bp. Breakevens fell up to

7bp in the front end, with 5y -3bp, 10y -2bp, and 30y -2bp. HICPx swaps also sold off: 1y -10bp,

2y -7bp, 5y -4bp, 10y -2bp, 30y -1bp.

UK RPI: The BoE held the Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote and cautious tone; our economists

still expect the BoE to be on hold this year. Annual inflation printed at 2.8% for May, and our

economists adjusted their forecast to account for the lower energy curves and weak data in core

goods and food; they now expect annual headline CPI to average 3.0% y/y in 2026, but maintain

their 2.4% call for 2027. Earnings growth slowed in April to 2.9% 3m/y, with the 3m/3m