LatAm Week Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Week Outlook

18 June 2026

n PEN: We maintain a bullish bias.

n Electoral uncertainty has largely faded, and a pro-market policy

framework should continue to support investment and fiscal

discipline.

n This comes against a backdrop of above-trend growth and well-

contained inflation.

Macro

n Colombia will have its second-round election this Sunday (June 21st).

Electoral polls suggest that the right-wing opposition candidate Abelardo

de la Espriella (ADLE) will defeat Senator Iván Cepeda (54% of votes for

ADLE in the latest poll), which echo the findings from our recent trip to

Bogotá (see report).

n It will be a heavy week for real-sector indicators in Mexico. The April

economic activity (IGAE) print (June 23rd) should reflect the strong

industrial production output recorded during the month. Consumer

spending—as gauged by retail sales, slated to be released the same day—

could provide additional support to the overall reading, thereby extending

the uptick observed in late Q1. Finally, the May unemployment rate (June

25th) will reflect the still tight labor market.

n Banxico is next up with the announcement of its rate-setting decision on

June 25th. We anticipate that the Board will follow through the indication

that the easing cycle would have been concluded with last decision’s cut

and keep rates unchanged at 6.50%.

n Minutes for this week’s Monetary Policy meetings will be released.

n The Brazilian Central Bank will publish the Meeting Minutes (June

23rd) and its Monetary Policy report (June 25th). These releases

should provide further insight into the rationale behind the decision

to cut interest rates, despite the Bank’s own assessment of a

challenging macroeconomic backdrop, characterized by

unanchored expectations, elevated inflation forecasts, and labor