Freight for Thought: Top question: why are Transports lagging in a risk-on tape?

Research evidence excerpt

Freight for Thought: Top question: why are Transports lagging in a risk-on tape?

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Transportation Freight for Thought 18 June 2026

Top question: why are Transports lagging in a

Richa Harnain, CFA risk-on tape?

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-6285

In the pages that follow, we discuss the many theories behind the group’s

underperformance this week, which is particularly striking given that easing Megan Makini

Middle East tensions should generally be supportive for such an economically Research Associate

+1-212-2501458 sensitive group.

First and foremost, we get it.

Freight transportation stocks have outperformed the QQQ, XLI, S&P, and INDU

in at least 10 of the past 13 weeks (see Figure 3). And the group has been the best

performing industrial sub-sector since the Middle East war began in late February

(see Figure 2). Some “giveback” or rotation on the back of such strength is

therefore understandable.

But understanding the pullback is different from believing it has staying power.

And we don’t. If recent weakness is nothing but rotation/buyer fatigue (the best

explanation, in our view), timing the turn is tough — but we still think the upside

case has support. To give bulls more cover ahead of what we so-far expect to be

a net-positive six-month catalyst path, we introduce another, less “traditional”

valuation lens as it pertains to how investors typically value the group: FCF yield.

Under an FCF-based screening, certain names with all-time-high P/E multiples

actually appear inexpensive, like JBHT and KNX. This analysis supports the

conclusion of our latest Weekly Shipment, that defended P/E multiples on the

back of better-than-market payout ratio improvement cycle-over-cycle.