FY26 management takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

FY26 management takeaways

Update

June 22, 2026 02:45 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MMetcash Ltd | Asia Pacific Mac Ross, CFA

Equity Analyst

FY26 management takeaways Mac.Ross@morganstanley.comMelinda K Baxter +61 2 9770-1579

Melinda.Baxter@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1176

Food: Mgmt's retail ownership strategy targets 25-30% of IGA revenue over ~5-6

Julia M de Sterke

yrs. It referenced ~10-15 stores p.a., although deal flow may be lumpy. Mgmt prefers Equity Analyst

disciplined, clustered/small-group acquisitions, with capex guide excluding M&A. It Julia.De.Sterke@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1658

also acknowledged the delivery channel/offering requires more work/investment

given where the market is heading. It expects the tobacco excise impact to be a ~A

$10m FY27 headwind.

Liquor: Mgmt sees share gains as sustainable, backed by local range, banner

Metcash Ltd (MTS.AX, MTS AU)

execution, and supplier leverage despite elevated pricing. Margins recovered in 2H;

Australia Consumer | Australia

mgmt expects 1H27 to be at the low end of 1.8-2.1% range.

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Cautious

Hardware: Retail margins remain below mid-cycle; no market recovery evident.

Price target A$3.20

Trade soft/lumpy, esp. Victoria/Tasmania. Wholesale margins were stable and Tools Up/downside to price target (%) 1

Shr price, close (Jun 19, 2026) A$3.18

earnings grew in FY26; focus on standards, range, and cost-out. 52-Week Range A$4.26-2.63

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 1,099

Mgmt highlighted Group earnings have grown despite material headwinds since Mkt cap, curr (mn) A$3,493

EV, curr (mn) A$4,094

FY21-26: tobacco sales -A$1.8bn / ~A$25m earnings drag including associated

Avg daily trading value (mn) A$14

products; plus ~A$30m from the Hardware cycle.