Americas Pipelines and MLPs: Remain Constructive on the US LNG Complex Post US-Iran MOU - Buy GLNG, VG, LNG

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Pipelines and MLPs: Remain Constructive on the US LNG Complex Post US-Iran MOU - Buy GLNG, VG, LNG

Goldman Sachs Americas Pipelines and MLPs

mtpa of LNG capacity (relative to current market of ~430 mtpa) is set to come online

through 2030. Thus, we expect global supply additions to temporarily outpace demand

growth (global demand growth has historically tracked at ~20-30 mtpa per year),

putting downward pressure on pricing later this decade. That said, as we have previously

discussed, we had already expected global LNG supply/demand balances to loosen in

2H26-2027. However, following the conflict in the Middle East where 1) the absence of

Qatari LNG supply since early March 2026 has tightened 2026 balances, 2) direct supply

has been taken offline following two Qatari LNG trains being damaged from missiles

during the conflict (~13 mtpa or ~3% of global supply), and 3) planned Qatari LNG

expansions (North Field East) were delayed, we expect balances to remain tight through

2027, shifting oversupply into 2028. Going forward, downside price risks exist if we see a

faster-than-expected ramp in LNG flows through the Strait or sooner than expected

ramp of planned Qatari LNG expansions. On the other hand, upside pricing risk exists if

we were to see the US-Iran peace agreement fall through or a slower than expected

ramp in LNG flows through the Strait.

We update our commodity deck - our global gas price expectations for 2H26-2027

remain largely unchanged: We update our commodity deck in 3Q26-2027 to reflect

updated forecasts from our GS Commodities research colleagues. We now expect JKM

2Q26/3Q26/4Q26 pricing of $17.80/$14.75/$13.80/mmbtu (+0% vs prior on average).

For 2027-2028, our forecasts remain largely unchanged, as we expect average JKM