Colombia: Right-Wing Abelardo de la Espriella Leads Preliminary Vote Count in Very Tight Presidential Election Runoff

Research evidence excerpt

Colombia: Right-Wing Abelardo de la Espriella Leads Preliminary Vote Count in Very Tight Presidential Election Runoff

Goldman Sachs

by leftist Ivan Cepeda from the incumbent Pacto Histórico. The result was consistent

with runoff polling, though the margin came in below the 4-8pp range surveys had

projected and below de la Espriella’s 2.9pp first-round edge. Voter turnout reached

a record-high 63.6%, exceeding the already-elevated 57.9% recorded in the first

round. The next administration will be inaugurated on August 7.

2. Mr. Cepeda declared that his campaign recognized the results of the pre-conteo, but

noted the official results are yet to be released.

3. Mr. De la Espriella campaigned on a tough-on-security, pro-growth,

pro-deregulation platform anchored in conservative values. If the official count

corroborates the preliminary tally and Mr. De la Espriella’s win, we see the

administration’s focus on three topics: public security, the healthcare sector, and the

fiscal accounts—Colombia’s most salient macro vulnerability and investors’

top-of-mind concern.

4. His program envisages a 40% reduction in the size of the State and a frontloaded

fiscal adjustment targeting COP$70tn (≈3.7% of GDP). The campaign has indicated

it will await the start of the government transition before formulating a detailed

consolidation plan, which is originally slated to be unveiled during a trip to the U.S.

on August 8.

5. Signals from José Manuel Restrepo, Mr. De la Espriella’s Vice-Presidential running

mate and a former Finance Minister, suggest the plan may incorporate anti-evasion

measures, a reduction in tax exemptions, and an objective of rendering the 2024

decentralization bill fiscally neutral.

6. We note that the 2027 spending budget falls within the Petro administration’s