European June Flash PMI Preview

Research evidence excerpt

European June Flash PMI Preview

Goldman Sachs

responses between June 4th and June 6th, showed a further downtick in the current

conditions component and flat expectations. The ZEW survey, which collected

responses later in the month, pointed to some recovery in expectations. High-frequency

data pointed more clearly to a further recovery in sentiment over the course of June,

suggesting upside to services activity.

Exhibit 2: Mixed Early Surveys; High-Frequency Data Shows Recovery in Consumer Sentiment

Source: ZEW, sentix, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Morning Consult, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

On net, we expect the area-wide composite to improve in June by 1.0pt to 49.5, slightly

above consensus expectations, reflecting an improvement in services and a broadly

unchanged manufacturing component.

We continue to be focused on the price-related components of the survey as possible

indicators of the strength and persistent of indirect and second round effects.

Commentary in the early-June survey by the Banque de France suggests that

manufacturers expect to raise prices in June at a similar frequency to the previous

month. Price pressures in the services sector remained muted in June.

Germany

In Germany, the May PMI showed a slight uptick in the composite index, reflecting a

modest recovery in services activity to still-subdued levels that was partially offset by a

moderation in manufacturing output. Some of the details in the May report were,

however firmer. First, activity in countries that are highly integrated in Germany’s

industrial supply chain have held up better, which historically suggests some upside in

the following month. Second, within the services survey, the new business index rose well