Macro Risk Digest: Halftime adjustments

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Macro Risk Digest: Halftime adjustments

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Macro Risk Digest

Halftime adjustments

Key themes for corporates 16 June 2026

1) Markets looking forward to end of Middle East War. As we approach the Rates and Currencies Research

midpoint of the year, markets are still being buffeted by worries around how the war in Global

the Middle East may unwind, despite the recent announcement between the US and Iran. John Shin

Mitigation of energy shortages and supply chain disruptions would be particularly FX Strategist

favorable for Europe and Asia relative to the US. This week, the Fed has the first BofAS+1 646 855 2582

meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh, but many other central banks have joong.s.shin@bofa.com

announcements around this time as well. Ralph Axel

Rates Strategist

Outlook: We still expect a moderately weaker USD and rangebound yields in the second BofASralph.axel@bofa.com

half of the year, with our forecast for EUR-USD remaining 1.20, USD-CNY at 6.70 and Ronald Man

US10yr yields at 4.25%. Rates Strategist

MLI (UK)

2) AI in the world of Warsh. AI continues to be prominent in client discussions, but the ronald.man@bofa.com

impact on policy remains hazy. Kevin Warsh starts his first Fed meeting this week, which KamalFX StrategistSharma

of course will receive great attention although we and markets do not expect either any MLI (UK)

ksharma32@bofa.com

move in policy. Warsh has been known to expect AI to significantly boost productivity,

thereby being disinflationary and potentially rationalizing lower rates, while the AdarshFX and RatesSinhaStrategist

productivity data itself has been much more ambivalent. MLI (UK)

adarsh.sinha@bofa.com

Outlook: We are more cautious and look only for slower impacts on all-important See Team Page for List of Analysts