Qantas Airways (QAN.AX): First Take: Sunrise Showcase - summary and key takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Qantas Airways (QAN.AX): First Take: Sunrise Showcase - summary and key takeaways

Equity Research

21 June 2026 | 1:49PM AEST

Qantas Airways (QAN.AX): First Take: Sunrise Showcase - summary and

key takeaways

In a prior note (see here) we looked to disaggregate Qantas’ A$400m EBIT target to better Niraj Shah

+61(2)9320-1369 | niraj.shah@gs.com

understand the underlying drivers/assumptions. The analysis showed the business case for Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Project Sunrise was underpinned by incremental revenues - a view reinforced at Qantas Sophie Yu

Project Sunrise Showcase, hosted at Airbus facilities in Toulouse. In this note we summarise +61(3)9679-1076Goldman Sachs Australia| sophie.x.yu@gs.comPty Ltd

key take-aways from the event. Alex Nosatti

+61(2)9321-8342 | alex.nosatti@gs.com

Project premise/promise. The strategic and commercial rationale of Product Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Sunrise is that new technology (the A380-1000 ULR’s range) and demand for

premium point-to-point (P2P) travel should flip Qantas’ geographic disadvantage

(tyranny of distance) into a new addressable revenue/earnings pool with a competitive

moat.

Timing. The first A350-1000 ULR First aircraft is expected in Apr27. Despite the

previously announced delay to the first aircraft, Airbus/Qantas are expected to catch

up to the prior time-line by Nov27 (five aircraft by then). Qantas announced

Sydney-London would be the first Sunrise ultra long-haul (ULH) route with tickets to

go on sale from Feb27 and the first service from Oct27.

Unpacking the business case. Passenger activities represent ~2/3 of the A$400m

EBIT target with the remaining ~1/3 from incremental freight earnings (the

A350-1000 ULR has ~25% more below space than the 787-9). About half of this