India: Monthly Activity Chartbook: Moderation in May consumption activity

Research evidence excerpt

India: Monthly Activity Chartbook: Moderation in May consumption activity

Economics Research

21 June 2026 | 3:04PM IST

India: Monthly Activity Chartbook: Moderation in May consumption

activity

The Indian economy has remained resilient through the Middle-East shock, as fiscal Santanu Sengupta

+91(22)6616-9042 |

and quasi-fiscal measures absorbed much of the increase in energy costs and limited santanu.sengupta@gs.com

Goldman Sachs India SPL

the pass-through to consumers. As a result, consumption demand held up in March

Arjun Varma

and April, despite signs of weakness in investment activity amid supply disruptions, +91(22)6616-9043 |

with commercial LPG allocations around 70% of pre-conflict levels. As fuel price arjun.varma@gs.comGoldman Sachs India SPL

hikes were passed on in May, consumption demand softened.

The recent US-Iran deal has prompted our commodities team to lower oil price

forecasts through 2H CY26 and CY27, which limits downside to India’s growth. Lower

oil prices have reduced the likelihood of further fuel price pass-through to

consumers, while easing supply constraints are beginning to support a recovery in

investment-related indicators such as port cargo traffic and steel production from

their March-April lows. That said, risks remain tilted towards weaker consumption,

particularly in rural areas given weather-related uncertainties and IMD forecasts of

heatwaves, while urban demand may continue to adjust to the price increases

already implemented. On balance, the recent downward revision in the oil price

forecast by our commodities team, suggests that real GDP growth could hold up

better than our earlier expectations, resulting in upside risks to our CY26 growth

forecasts.

We discuss high frequency activity indicators for May below. High frequency