US Economic Notes: What you need to know for the week ahead

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Notes: What you need to know for the week ahead

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

US Economic Notes 19 June 2026

What you need to know for the week ahead

Brett Ryan

Commentary for Monday: As market participants digest last week’s FOMC Senior US Economist

meeting, as well as the Iran/US MOU, focus will be on New York Fed President +1-212-250-6294

Williams, as well as Chicago’s Goolsbee on Thursday, both of whom will appear

after seeing the latest reading on the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred (for Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.

Chief US Economist now) inflation metric earlier that morning. As we noted last week (see “Fed Notes: +1-212-250-6161

June FOMC recap: Rock Chalk, Warsh-hawk “), new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

immediately put his stamp on the Committee. In a return to 1990s-style Justin Weidner

communications, he significantly shortened the post-meeting statement – it was Economist

+1-212-469-1679 cut from 341 words to 130 – and removed forward guidance. He also did not

submit forecasts for the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Those Amy Yang

projections, completed by his colleagues, skewed undeniably hawkish, and Warsh Economist

did not distance himself from this signal in his press conference. +1-212-250-9959

The median dot for 2026 showed half a hike, with nine officials projecting higher

rates this year (six projecting 50bps of hikes or more). The median dot for next

year moved up to 3.625%, consistent with the current fed funds rate. The shift

higher was motivated by a reassessment of inflation persistence, with core PCE

revised up to 3.3% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2027. In his press conference, Warsh

leaned hawkish, emphasizing the importance of restoring price stability, and

noting that the Committee has work to do on inflation.