US Fixed Income Weekly: Strategy Update

Research evidence excerpt

US Fixed Income Weekly: Strategy Update

19 June 2026

US Fixed Income Weekly

Entering a new Fed comms regime

Matthew Raskin | Strategist | +1-212-250-1741

Note: This note was originally published on 16 June 2026.

The FOMC meeting tomorrow opens a new chapter in Fed communications.

Ahead of that we look back at communications during the Powell regime, and in

particular sources of interest rate volatility around FOMC meetings.

The chart below shows realized vol in 2y and 10y UST yields, measured as the

average absolute change in intraday windows around: (1) the FOMC

statement/SEP release, (2) the chair’s press conference, and (3) publication of the

meeting minutes. We use the San Francisco Fed’s monetary policy event-study

database and focus on scheduled meetings with Powell as chair.

A few observations:

• Across all meetings (SEP and non-SEP) and communication windows, vol

in the 2y was higher than vol in the 10y.

• At SEP meetings (lhs), vol in the 10y was slightly higher around the press

conference than the statement/SEP. This holds even if we focus only on

meetings at which the policy rate was changed (not shown).

• At non-SEP meetings (rhs), vol across the curve was 2-3x higher around

the press conference than the statement.

Taken together, this illustrates that the press conference has been a critical

source of information for markets, and we suspect Warsh will be reluctant to

relinquish the opportunity to shape the narrative after each meeting. In line with

this, our recent client survey found that while most expect material changes to

Fed communications over time – including less use of forward guidance and an

end to the dot plot – only around 1/3 of respondents anticipate Warsh will reduce

the frequency of press conferences.