Euro Area Data Update: Construction Activity on Track for a Rebound in Q2

Research evidence excerpt

Euro Area Data Update: Construction Activity on Track for a Rebound in Q2

Economics Research

19 June 2026 | 2:56PM BST

Euro Area Data Update: Construction Activity on Track for a Rebound in

Q2

BOTTOM LINE: Our area-wide preliminary Q2 GDP was broadly unchanged. Giovanni Pierdomenico

+44(20)7051-6807 |

giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com

Today’s update covers data released over June 16th-19th. Goldman Sachs International

MAIN POINTS:

1. In Germany, real hospitality sales were flat in April, in line with our previous

assumptions. The level over previous months was revised slightly higher, although it

remains fairly low. Real wholesale trade declined by -1.4%mom in April. On net, our

tracking estimate was essentially unchanged.

2. In France, the early-June Banque de France’s survey, which was conducted over

May 27th-June 3rd, pointed to a softening in activity in both manufacturing and

services in May, partly reflecting the timing of public holidays. Surveyed businesses

expect an improvement in activity in June. The BdF estimates flat GDP in Q2. On the

inflation front, the write-up flagged ongoing price pressures in the manufacturing

sector but more modest price increases in the services sector.

3. In Italy, the services trade balance continued to deteriorate in April, continuing to

normalize after the sharp rise observed in February. Production in construction rose

by +0.3%mom in April, with meaningful positive revisions to the level of activity in

March resulting in an uptick of our Q2 tracking estimate.

4. In Spain, the Ministry of the Economy’s indicators of private construction showed

a contraction in April after a strong rise in March, confirming the signal from retail

sales.

5. Elsewhere, the goods trade balance firmed up in Belgium and Ireland but