Global Markets Daily: Lowest Gas Inventory in Over 10 Years Still OK for Europe This Winter

Research evidence excerpt

Global Markets Daily: Lowest Gas Inventory in Over 10 Years Still OK for Europe This Winter

Economics Research

19 June 2026 | 5:16AM EDT

Global Markets Daily: Lowest Gas Inventory in Over 10 Years Still OK for

Europe This Winter

n Even with the imminent resumption of energy flows we assume through the Strait Samantha Dart

+1(212)357-9428 |

of Hormuz, we expect North West European natural gas storage levels, currently samantha.dart@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

well below average, to only climb to 74% full ahead of this coming winter, the

Laura Cyr

lowest level since 2013. +1(212)902-3435 | laura.x.cyr@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n However, European natural gas pricing, which has remained relatively in check in

face of what has been one of the largest gas supply shocks in history, suggests

the market is comfortable with this estimated storage fill.

n We believe this lower storage target vs history is consistent with a structural drop

in European gas demand since the 2022 energy crisis and a significant rise in LNG

imports.

n The additional increases in LNG supply we expect in the coming years suggest

that NW European gas storage could reduce its summer fill further, to 70% full by

end-Oct28, and still be well positioned to go through winter, when gas demand is

highest, comfortably.

Lowest Gas Inventory in Over 10 Years Still OK for Europe This Winter

We had been emphasizing in recent client conversations that European gas markets

had been at a crossroads. The loss of Qatari LNG supply driven by the Iran conflict

was never sustainable for European gas markets owing to the need for gas storage to

refill ahead of the winter, when natural gas demand is highest, especially given the

strong rebound in Asia LNG demand since May. So, either LNG flows through the