Company Update

Research evidence excerpt

Company Update

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy ArcelorMittal 18 June 2026

Europe

North America

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 18 Jun 2026 (USD) 63.41

MT.N MT US NYS MT

Price Target (USD) 67.00

Industrials

52-week range (USD) 71.65 - 29.97

Metals & Mining

Feedback from meetings with

Valuation & Risks management

Bastian Synagowitz

Deutsche Bank hosted meetings with ArcelorMittal`s Head of IR & Corporate

Research Analyst

Finance Daniel Fairclough. The main focus has been the implications of the new EU +41-44-227-3377

safeguard measures on the European market and MT`s operations as well the

current dynamics across the portfolio. Management also reiterated the strong

ambition to keep the extra shareholder returns above the minimum target of at least

50% of the post-dividend FCF. We noted the following key takeaways:

Safeguards: How quickly will European supply step up to fill the gap?

Forthcoming safeguard measures are expected to meaningfully lower imports, and

MT expects a reduction by 12-13mt vs. 2025 import levels (and crude steel

production of 129mt in 2025). This creates a structural volume gap and given that

a lot of capacity has been idled over recent years and faces hurdles to be brought

back, it may not be straightforward to fill with domestic supply. Management

highlighted that European capacity restarts are limited and aims for a phased

approach with BFs in Poland and Spain coming back after a temporary break

(suggesting the yoy impact will be limited). The restart of Fos in France (2mt) would

be the main incremental restart vs last year but management made clear that it is

not fighting for market share and will only bring supply on if required. In other