The Future of Work – Labor Shortages, Automation & AI

Research evidence excerpt

The Future of Work – Labor Shortages, Automation & AI

please read - Can AI help solve the Demographic Dilemma? What we are watching

for and our Macro team’s AI Adoption Tracker.

4. AI as an ‘Up-Leveling’ force rather than a job disrupter and the importance of

judgment. Consistent with the Jevons paradox, AI is reshaping rather than shrinking the

workforce, and could likely increase labor demand if AI improves the efficiency of labor

according to Mr. Heins. Examples include radiologists, a job seeing more demand amidst

the rise in requests for imaging. Despite AI efficiency tools, demand growth for imaging

is outpacing the workforce growth, leaving a shortfall of radiologists in the UK according

to the RCR. Similarly, Mr. Heins highlighted that amongst software engineers only ~14%

of their time is actually spent coding, limiting productivity uplift while creating new tasks

— comparing AI to other forms of automation such as a dishwasher that eliminates

washing but adds loading/unloading. AI skills are now commanding a premium, for

example in HR, only ~1% of workers have AI skills against ~6% of job ads requiring them,

and those with AI skills are far more attractive and command higher pay. Looking ahead,

Mr. Joost argued that in the debate around AGI, critical thinking and judgment will

become more important skills for the jobs of the future.

5. The K-Shaped Labor Market, Flexible Work, Temp Penetration, and Randstad’s

Positioning. According to Randstad, a ‘K-shaped’ divergence is evident in the job market

with the entire reduction in job-ad demand attributed to the decline in early-career

roles (0-2 years experience), while demand for experienced talent (8-10 years) is up —

widening the experience premium and creating a future pipeline risk for industries