From Energy Relief to New Fed Chief

Research evidence excerpt

From Energy Relief to New Fed Chief

Economics Research

18 June 2026 | 11:32PM BST

GLOBAL FX TRADER

Our thoughts on USD, EM Carry, JPY, CHF, AUD & NZD and EGP Kamakshya Trivedi +44(20)7051-4005 |

n USD: Something new and some things we’re used to. This FOMC meeting was kamakshya.trivedi@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

very different from the last one, and from what was expected. We think, on net, Michael Cahill

the more hawkish FOMC stance matters more than the US-Iran MOU for the +44(20)7552-8314michael.e.cahill@gs.com|

near-term Dollar outlook because it comes as a bigger surprise (after all, there Goldman Sachs International

has always been a baseline that the Conflict would come to a resolution at some Danny+65-6889-1987Suwanapruti|

point, and markets never priced a significant amount of stress), and because rate danny.suwanapruti@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

differentials have a larger and more consistent correlation with the Dollar than oil Teresa Alves

prices. So unless the Fed’s more hawkish stance proves fleeting as oil prices move +44(20)7051-7566teresa.alves@gs.com|

lower, we see this as replacing one positive Dollar factor with another, more Goldman Sachs International

Karen Reichgott Fishman powerful one. And in this context we think it is worth noting that, while oil prices +1(212)855-6006 |

were the initial catalyst for FOMC participants to begin their reassessment, karen.fishman@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

strong AI-led US demand has been a major factor behind higher growth, inflation Stuart Jenkins

+44(20)7051-4700 |

and pricing for the neutral rate since the start of the year. This degree of Fed stuart.jenkins@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

support is new, but comes in part from factors that we believe have been helping

Victor Engel