Moderating Near-Term Gold Price Upside on No Fed Cuts This Year

Research evidence excerpt

Moderating Near-Term Gold Price Upside on No Fed Cuts This Year

Commodities Research

18 June 2026 | 2:57PM EDT

n We are moderating our forecast for gold price appreciation for two reasons. First, Lina Thomas

+1(212)902-8376 | lina.thomas@gs.com

we reduce our forecast for rate-sensitive gold ETF demand, as our economists Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

pushed back the final two Fed rate cuts earlier this month to June and December Daan Struyven

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of 2027 (vs. December 2026 and March 2027 previously). Second, as the daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

surprisingly hawkish first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh is likely to limit market

concerns about DM central bank independence in coming quarters, we now

assume stable macro-policy hedges demand for gold (vs. a gradual recovery to

early January 2026 levels previously). We now expect the gold price to rise to

$4,900/toz by December 2026 (vs. $5,400 previously). Our gold price views

remain structurally constructive but tactically cautious with near-term downside

risk and medium-term upside risk.

n Structurally still constructive. Continued central bank diversification remains

the main structural driver of our constructive base case for gold prices,

contributing ~9pp to our forecast for appreciation by Dec26. We also assume a

moderate boost to gold prices from a normalization of 1) currently relatively low

speculative positioning relative to its historical average and of 2) gold ETF

holdings that have undershot their federal funds rate-implied level. While the

pace of central bank gold purchases has moderated to ~50 tonnes/month on a

3-month (seasonally adjusted) and 12-month moving average basis — down

from 67tonnes/month in 2024 but well above the 17 tonnes/month before the