Moderna Inc. (MRNA): VRBPAC votes in support of mRNA flu vaccine in older adults

Research evidence excerpt

Moderna Inc. (MRNA): VRBPAC votes in support of mRNA flu vaccine in older adults

Goldman Sachs Moderna Inc. (MRNA)

believe the data presented were convincing and demonstrate that the benefits

outweigh the risk for accelerated approval.

n While concerns regarding increased reactogenicity with mRNA-1010 were raised,

multiple committee members noted that the safety data was overall reassuring, with

an AE profile comparable to other mRNA vaccines. Committee members additionally

suggested that reactogenicity could be related to efficacy, generally highlighting that

vaccines that are more reactogenic are associated with more innate immune

activation, suggestive of potentially a stronger immune response and better

protection.

n On T cell responses, the committee members highlighted that mRNA-1010 elicits

stronger T cell responses (potentially per the mRNA platform) over current vaccines,

which are limited as they do not maintain immunity. Several committee members

believe there is potential here to elicit improved immunity across the population,

and thus the platform could allow the field to possible move away from annual

vaccination hypothetically in the future given stronger memory T cell immunity.

Exhibit 1: Proposed Ph4 mRNA-1010 post-registrational study

Source: Company data

Valuation and Risks

MRNA (Neutral). We are Neutral rated on MRNA. Our 12-month PT of $49 is based on a

100% DCF value (12% WACC and 3% TGR). Upside risks: Commercial risk —

higher-than-anticipated sales and penetration into patient populations,

earlier-than-expected approval timelines from the oncology programs, other pipeline

success and competitive failures. Downside risks: Failure to demonstrate clinical proof of

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