Australia & NZ Weekly Economic Preview/Review: Week commencing 22 June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Australia & NZ Weekly Economic Preview/Review: Week commencing 22 June 2026

Economics Research

19 June 2026 | 3:08PM AEST

Australia & NZ Weekly Economic Preview/Review: Week commencing 22

June 2026

Key data over the past week: Andrew Boak, CFA

+61(2)9321-8576 |

In Australia: andrew.boak@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

n RBA Cash Rate: The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.35% at May’s meeting. Will Maher

+61(2)9320-1013 | will.maher@gs.com

The decision reflected a consensus decision across the Board. In the brief Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

statement attending the decision, the RBA articulated a tightening bias noting Oscar To

+61(2)9320-1367 | oscar.to@gs.com

that “the Board … will do what it considers necessary…, including increasing the Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

cash rate target further if required.”

n RBA’s Bullock: In the post decision press conference, RBA Governor Bullock

restated a hawkish bias noting that “today’s decision does not rule out further

tightening if that is what’s required to bring inflation down”. Governor Bullock

stressed that the current slowing in growth was in line with RBA forecasts and

“necessary” to contain inflation. We continue to lean towards another 25bp rate

hike at August’s meeting.

n Inflation Monitor: In Australia, we expect headline CPI to fall 0.4%mom in May,

which would leave year-over-year inflation unchanged at 4.2%yoy. We flag a

higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty in our forecasts this month. In New

Zealand, monthly price data covering around 50% of the CPI basket remained

unchanged in May.

In New Zealand:

n GDP: New Zealand GDP increased 0.8%qoq in 1Q2026, below the RBNZ’s

forecast. However, year-over-year growth was materially stronger than expected