Fed Notes: Who‘s who in the June 2026 dot plot

Research evidence excerpt

Fed Notes: Who‘s who in the June 2026 dot plot

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

Fed Notes 18 June 2026

Who's who in the June 2026 dot plot

Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.

Chief US Economist

+1-212-250-6161

As we detailed in our recap note, the June dot plot in the Summary of Economic

Projections (SEP) skewed notably hawkish (see “Rock Chalk, Warsh hawk”). The Brett Ryan

median dot moved higher by half a hike – with Chair Warsh not submitting Senior US Economist

economic forecasts, including dots, the median was split. More significantly, one +1-212-250-6294

official penciled in 75bps of hikes and five projected 50bps of rate increases this

Justin Weidner

year. Economist

+1-212-469-1679

Despite Warsh’s best efforts to downplay the signal from the dot plot, we received

more client requests than usual for our ID. Acknowledging significant uncertainty Amy Yang

around this exercise, particularly before hearing from any officials following the Economist

meeting, and while emphasizing that the dot plot may receive less focus within +1-212-250-9959

the walls of the Eccles building under the new chair, the following chart provides

our initial effort at providing this identification.

As shown below, we see regional presidents populating the top of the dot plot.

This identification is consistent with our latest hawk-dove scores from our AI tool

(see “DB AI hawk-dove update”). Three regional Fed voters – Hammack, Kashkari

and Logan – lean towards 50bps of rate hikes for this year on this identification.

On the flipside, we see three members of the Board of Governors – Barr, Cook

and Waller – penciling in one rate hike this year. The remaining members of the

Board of Governors, including the Vice Chair (Jefferson), Vice Chair of the FOMC