Chile - The BCCh stands pat and adopts a more neutral guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Chile - The BCCh stands pat and adopts a more neutral guidance

Deutsche Bank

Research

Emerging Markets Date

Latam Macro Notes 18 June 2026

Chile - The BCCh stands pat and adopts a

Francisco Campos more neutral guidance

Chief LatAm Economist

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Key points:

• BCCh unanimously kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%, as Beatriz Garcia Nunes

expected. LatAm Economist

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• The communiqué acknowledged the near-term inflation impact from the

oil shock, but stressed that core inflation remains relatively well behaved,

suggesting limited second-round effects.

• As per the BCCh’s appraisal, the external backdrop remains uncertain

despite the peace deal between the US and Iran given the repeated

swings around a durable ceasefire.

• The domestic outlook softened, with 1Q activity below the March IPoM

forecast, weak job creation, higher unemployment, weaker household

consumption fundamentals and lower investment expected this year.

• The forward guidance turned more neutral, in our view. The Council

indicated that upcoming decisions would continue to be made on a

meeting-by-meeting basis.

• Overall, the tone of the communiqué suggests more balanced risks amid

easier inflationary pressures owing the external developments and

greater sensitivity to activity. We retain our call for steady rates for an

extended period.

The Central Bank of Chile (BCCh) unanimously decided to keep the policy rate

unchanged at 4.50%, in line with our consensus-matching expectation. The tone

of the communiqué was more balanced than in previous meetings, in our view.

While the Council continued to stress that the macroeconomic scenario remains

subject to unusually high uncertainty, it also acknowledged that the balance of