Summary of views: A summary of our views on duration, the curve, swap spreads, inflation and volatility across the US, Europe, and Japan.

Research evidence excerpt

Summary of views: A summary of our views on duration, the curve, swap spreads, inflation and volatility across the US, Europe, and Japan.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

18 June 2026

Global Rates Markets

Summary of views

A summary of our views on duration, the curve, swap

spreads, inflation and volatility across the US, Europe, and

Japan. Anshul Pradhan +1 212 412 3681

anshul.pradhan@barclays.com

BCI, US

United States Rohan Khanna +44 (0) 20 7773 0533

Duration rohan.khanna1@barclays.com

•• Chair Warsh revealed an inflation-focused reaction function, a lack of forward guidance and a Barclays, UK

review of balance sheet policy, to be potentially concluded by year-end. Amrut Nashikkar

+1 212 412 1848

•• We raise our yield forecasts to reflect a higher expected path of short rates, as well as the term amrut.nashikkar@barclays.com

premium. We expect 2y and 30y yields to be 4% and 5.25%, respectively, in a year's time. We BCI, US

envisage significantly higher yields and a flatter curve if the Fed hikes meaningfully. Moyeen Islam

+44 (0) 20 7773 4675

•• We initiate a pay 5y5y SOFR position (entry, 4.15%, with room to scale up the trade). 5y5y moyeen.islam@barclays.com

rates look low compared with rising estimates of the nominal neutral rate. In addition, the list Barclays, UK

of reasons for a higher term premium is growing, which is leading to higher rates globally.

Shinichiro Kadota

Curve/curvature +81 3 4530 1374

shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.com

•• We were stopped out of our 5s30s Treasury curve-steepener recommendation, given the BSJL, Japan

hawkish outcome at the FOMC meeting.

Swap spreads

•• We maintain our recommendation to be long belly spreads which benefit from softness in

repo rates and further upside; we continue to recommend beta-weighted 2s7s spread curve

steepeners.