Global Freight Monitor: US-Iran Deal: Tankers rebalance, sticky container rates

Research evidence excerpt

Global Freight Monitor: US-Iran Deal: Tankers rebalance, sticky container rates

18 June 2026

Equities

Transport Global Freight Monitor

US-Iran Deal: Tankers rebalance, sticky container rates Global

◆ US-Iran deal is signed, but shipping should normalise gradually.

Deepak Maurya*, CFA

Tankers get a lift from vessel repositioning and inventory rebuild Analyst, Asia Transport

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

◆ Container rates to stay firm on front-loading and restocking, with deepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4292

Red Sea return less likely in peak season. Air yields to soften Parash Jain*

Global Head of Transport & Logistics Research

◆ Buy: APMM, CSH-H/A, Evergreen, PBS, and CX; Hold: SITC, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

parashjain@hsbc.com.hk

OOIL, and DHL; Reduce: HLAG +852 2996 6717

Bruce Chu*, CFA

Normalisation will lag the news flow: The US and Iran have signed a 60-day interim Analyst, Asia Transport

deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) (Reuters, 18 Jun). The US will waive and The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

bruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk

ultimately lift key sanctions, enabling Iranian exports and port access. Still, we expect +852 2996 6621

shipping normalisation to lag pending a durable settlement, mine clearance and lower Cathy Huang*, CFA

insurance costs (see Impact of Middle East conflict – XII, 16 June 2026). Associate, Asia Transport

Containers – early peak season and restocking keep rates firm: The SCFI rose cathy.m.y.huang@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 4506

4.6% w-o-w to 3,122, its highest since Aug-24, with spot rates up 9-11% to the US and

Kevin Li*

3% to Europe, leaving the index 134% above pre-conflict levels. Liners have outlined Associate

more rate increases for early July.