SNB Rate Decision (Jun)

Research evidence excerpt

SNB Rate Decision (Jun)

18 June 2026

SNB Rate Decision (Jun) Economics

Still not overly concerned by inflation Switzerland

◆ The SNB kept its policy rate at 0.00% as expected and continued to signal an Chantana Sam

increased willingness to intervene in the FX market if necessary Economist,Switzerland France and

HSBC Continental Europe

◆ Inflation forecasts have been slightly revised higher at the near-term horizon but chantana.sam@hsbc.fr +33 1 40 70 77 95

have remained virtually unchanged over the medium-term

◆ The lack of significant changes in the SNB communication backs our central

view: we still expect the policy rate to remain stable at 0% in 2026 and 2027

Facts

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at its quarterly policy meeting

today, opting for a status quo for the fourth time in a row. This decision was in line with consensus (it was

expected by 18 out of the 19 economists polled by Bloomberg, including HSBC) and market expectations

(ahead of the meeting, futures on short-term rates were pricing a marginal rate cut of 1bp). No changes

were announced on the tiering system: above a certain threshold, sight deposits held by commercial

banks at the SNB will remain charged at 25bp.

The wording on FX interventions also remained unchanged: the SNB continues to signal an “increased

willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market” to counter “a rapid and excessive appreciation of

the Swiss franc”.

Inflation forecasts were slightly revised up relative to March, but only in the short term. Inflation is now

seen at 0.8% y-o-y in Q4 2026 (versus 0.6% expected in March) but the forecast for Q4 2027 has

remained unchanged at 0.6%. The SNB mentions in its statement that the rise in short-term forecasts