Second wave of URB price hikes driven by both cost-push and demand-pull dynamics

Research evidence excerpt

Second wave of URB price hikes driven by both cost-push and demand-pull dynamics

18 June 2026

Packaging Unpacked

Drivers: A Combination of Cost-Push and Demand-Pull

This round of price increases is driven by a dual dynamic of persistent cost

inflation and strengthening demand.

• Persistent cost inflation: Producers are still working to offset significant

inflationary pressures. These include rising costs for transportation,

recovered fiber, and adhesives. During its April earnings call, Sonoco’s

management described how rapid cost inflation for inputs like energy,

freight, and petrochemicals that began in March was expected to result

in $8 million to $10 million in extra costs during the second quarter. The

current price hikes are a necessary step to recover these costs and

protect margins.

• Strengthening end-market demand: Unlike the March increases that

were primarily attributed to cost-push, producers are now explicitly citing

strengthening demand and high mill utilization rates as key drivers, which

is a crucial and positive shift. Sonoco noted robust demand across its

markets and strong utilization in its paper mill network as a primary

reason for the increase. Similarly, Greif pointed to the strengthening

demand across its end markets as a driver, in addition to rising input and

transportation costs.

Outlook

As shown in Figure 1, URB prices stood at $1,170/ton, representing a 6.4% year-

over-year increase. A successful implementation of the announced $60/ton hike

would bring URB prices to $1,230/ton, which would be up 10.8% year-over-year.

This development is a net positive for Sonoco. The price increase would not only

help offset the cost pressures experienced in the second quarter but also support

margin expansion in its industrial paper packaging segments.