LATAM Today: June 18, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: June 18, 2026

Goldman Sachs LATAM Today

Data Today:

Trade Balance (May); we forecast a US$2.3bn trade surplus in May. In April, exports,

especially energy products, boosted the trade balance. Imports were below

expectations for the sixth month in a row. The energy trade balance posted a record

high US$1.4bn in the month and the cumulative trade balance over the last 12 months

rose to an US$18.3bn surplus, approximately 2.7% of GDP, up from US$11.3bn (about

1.7% of GDP) by year-end 2025.

SA

BRAZIL

Brazil Copom: 25bp Selic Cut to 14.25%; Dovish and Cryptic Forward Guidance;

Convergence to Target Beyond Current Relevant Horizon

Bottom Line: The Copom delivered another 25bp rate cut, driving the Selic to 14.25%

(unanimous decision in line with GS and consensus). In our assessment the statement and the

forward guidance lack clarity and objectivity and appear dovish. The statement does not seem

to give proper emphasis to the significant deterioration of the inflation backdrop, the sizeable

increase in the central bank model-based conditional inflation forecasts over the relevant

horizon for monetary policy (extending through 4Q27), and a more resilient growth and

labor-market backdrop. The Copom argues that alternative Selic rate paths (higher than the

current central bank Focus survey) guaranteeing inflation convergence to the target by 1Q28

(which will be in the relevant horizon at the next two meetings) are compatible with smoothing

variations of macroeconomic aggregates. The conditional inflation forecasts over the relevant

horizon for monetary policy moved further above the target, and by more than expected

(+60bp to 5.2% for end-2026, and +20bp to 3.7% for 4Q27), but with the Copom stressing

that uncertainty around its projections remains high.