Assessing the Case for a September Hike

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Assessing the Case for a September Hike

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June 19, 2026 03:50 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.MEuropean Economics Weekly | Europe Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

Assessing the Case for a Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.comJean-Francois Ouvrard +49 69-21662817

Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

September Hike Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

Bruna Skarica

This week, Jens Eisenschmidt and Jean-Francois Ouvrard discuss Chief UK Economist

Bruna.Skarica@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9110

the path ahead for the ECB. Next week, the focus will be on Chiara Zangarelli

PMIs and euro area consumer surveys. Economist

Chiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

This week in Europe: The pre-conditions for a September hike Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.

Gabriela Silova

With the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran announced last Economist

weekend, the retracement of oil prices that followed (here), and a hawkish tilt from Gabriela.Silova@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662832

the Fed (here), our week was dominated by conversations about the ECB path. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

Along the way, we also received a couple of interesting data prints, with the details Skander Garchi Casal

Economist

of the May inflation print and the ECB wage tracker. As of today, our ECB call is Skander.Garchi.Casal@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0034

unchanged, we expect a hold in July and a second and last hike in September. We

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.

have strong conviction that July is off the table. In our view, September is the more Claire A Thuerwaechter

interesting meeting, so we want to use this weekly to discuss how we see risks Economist

Claire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842