Asia – Macro Catalysts: BOT on Hold; Australia and Japan‘s Inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Asia – Macro Catalysts: BOT on Hold; Australia and Japan‘s Inflation

Idea

June 19, 2026 11:17 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MAsia/Pacific Weekly Preview | Asia Pacific Derrick Y Kam

Asia Economist

Asia – Macro Catalysts: BOT on Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+ +65 6834-8272

Robin Xing

Chief China EconomistHold; Australia and Japan's Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Inflation Takeshi Yamaguchi

Chief Japan Economist

We see BOT staying on hold at 1.0%. We expect Australia's May Takeshi.Yamaguchi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5404

CPI to rise to 4.6%Y and Japan's Tokyo CPI for June to edge up to Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Upasana Chachra

1.6%Y. Chief India Economist

Upasana.Chachra@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2246

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Key Takeaways

Kathleen Oh

We provide a list of macro catalysts across Asia for June 22-28. Chief Korea/Taiwan Economist

Kathleen.Oh@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7340

We see BOT on hold as we expect it to look past supply-side driven inflationary

pressures from higher energy prices. Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Chris Read

Australia's headline CPI to rise 4.6%Y in May, up from the prior month. Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

Importantly, we expect a further tick up in core inflation, rising from 3.4% to Chris.Read@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1513

3.5%. Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Jonathan Cheung

We project headline Tokyo CPI for June at 1.6%Y, with Japan-style core (all items Economist

less fresh food) at 1.6%Y and core-core (less fresh food and energy) at 1.8%Y. Jonathan.Cheung@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5652

Kelly Wang

Economist

Kelly.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0891