Spot Base Consensus: 19 June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Spot Base Consensus: 19 June 2026

Idea

June 19, 2026 10:28 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 19 June R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case

values for all stocks under our coverage. Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot Industry View Attractive

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Recent Research:

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

BHP Group Ltd: Jansen Stage 2 capex and

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

schedule reset in line with MSe (18 Jun 2026)

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up Sustainability & Metals & Mining: EU's Critical

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – Raw Materials Security in a Multipolar World (5

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 2Q26: Two-Way Risks (8 Apr 2026). Jun 2026)

Asia Energy Security and AI: Energy Meets

Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

Compute: Supercycle Recharges (21 May 2026)

50% Mineral Resources Limited: TripNotes: Wodgina

40% Site Visit (20 May 2026)

BHP Group Ltd: Rising data centre build favours

30%

BHP's commodity mix – but there's plenty of

20% alpha too (13 May 2026)

10% Boss Energy Ltd: Updating Estimates and Price

0% Target (1 May 2026)

-10%

-20%

-30%

FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 CY26 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 CY26